How will the phenomenon of aging affect households saving and the financial market?

• Main Authors: Yun-ChiYuan, 袁允齊
• Other Authors: Yuan-Ho Hsu
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36947597632651524855

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 經濟學系碩博士班 === 101 === This paper analyzes the relationship between population aging and personal saving as well as the financial market in Taiwan. It focuses on the wealth accumulation of households and the financial assets allocation as well as the rate of returns on each financial asset, including stock equities, corporate bonds, Treasury bills, long term bonds and money deposits. The major labor force aged 16 to 64 represents the transition of population aging; data is attained by medium variant population projections for R.O.C (2012 - 2060). The transactions-flow matrices and stock-flow consistent model provide essential information on how each financial asset is dealt between sectors in the financial market. The model is built based on the notion of post-Keynesian. This paper tries to assess the notion whether the population aging will lead to financial market meltdown. The simulation results suggest that the phenomenon of aging has detectable impacts on macroeconomics and the financial market. Households tend to allocate their wealth to equities and money deposits which have higher profitability and higher liquidity. Further, productivity growth will provide more positive effect to the economy, and stronger effect of population aging will induce higher wage cost and stimulate households to hold more equities. These results are important to realize the implications for the transition of the financial market during the eta of aging.