The Impact of the Economic Development of BRICS and Recent International Financial Events on the Gold Price and Crude Oil Price

• Main Authors: Yueh-WenLiu, 劉玥妏
• Other Authors: Hsin-Hung Kang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/66328041805429327041

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 國際企業研究所碩博士班 === 101 === The purpose of this study is to discuss the impact of BRICS economic growth and the recent international financial events on gold price and crude oil price. This study employs multiple regression analysis includes OLS and TSLS methods, adopting the data from the third quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2012. The research data are extracted from KITCO, Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ), Federal Reserve Bank, United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). First, the changes of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, U.S. government bond yields, U.S. federal funds rate and CPI all have no significant relationships with the change of gold price. And we found a significant positive relationship between the change of silver price and gold price. The economic developments of BRICS have no significant impact on the change of gold price. Financial Crisis in 2008, European debt crisis and QE2 have significant impacts on the change of gold price; however, QE3 has no significant impact on the change of gold price. Secondly, the changes of supply amount of crude oil and world GDP have no significant positive relationship with the change of oil price. GBP/USD and USD/JPY have significant positive impacts on the change of oil price. Among BRICS, only the economic development change of Russia has significant positive impact on the change of oil price among BRICS. And 2008 Financial Crisis has a significant positive impact on oil price. The European sovereign debt crisis and QE1 has significant negative impacts on oil price. QE2 and QE3 have no significant impacts on the change of oil price. Finally, the change of oil price has no significant effect on the change of gold price in the gold price model. However, the change of gold price has a significant positive relationship with the change of oil price in the oil price model.