| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 建築學系碩博士班 === 101 === Earthquake is very active in Taiwan, and it can always damage school
buildings. Schools play an important role for teaching and activities, when
disaster happens; it becomes a public shelter too. So when school buildings
suffered from damage in an earthquake and renovation is needed, to make a
return to normal as soon as possible, there should be a reliable prediction
models to facilitate the overall recovery plan of operations.
The purpose of this study is to develop a forecast model of recovery time
for school buildings. We analyzed 4 earthquakes: Chiahsien, Hualien and
Taitung, Hengchun earthquake with 247 school buildings and the 921
earthquake with 138 school buildings. Using log-normal distribution, survival
analysis, nonlinear regression and probability curves of recovery time ,this
research analyzed recovery time for the probability curves of three intensity
types「: small - earthquake」「, large- earthquake」,and「overall - earthquake」.We
finally provides four recovery time events for the school building’s probability
curves.
In probability curves of recovery time, we can find that during the
earthquake to start construction stage, different administrative processes have a
strong impact on the time needed. Because the earthquake to start construction
stage constitutes the highest proportion in the earthquake to use period, a good
administrative flow chart is proven can definitely shorten the school rebuilt
period as our analysis data indicated.
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