Tourism Demand Forecasting for Taiwan：Using Dynamic Diffusion Model

• Main Authors: Kuan-YingHo, 何冠穎
• Other Authors: Bor-Wen Kreng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/87279429989490062690

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 工業與資訊管理學系碩博士班 === 101 === Since July, 2008, the new tourism’s policy permitted mainland tourists to sightsee in Taiwan. This innovative policy not only changed the Taiwan tourism industry type, but also throve the whole industry development. In 2011, the mainland tourists were over 178 million and brought 6.85 billion US dollars till July, 2012. However, some travel quality declined problems were discussed on this issue, and, it can be seen that mainland tourists play an important role in tourism market in Taiwan. The development and planning of all industry depend on their demand. Therefore, this study is based on dynamic diffusion model, and combines economic factors with policy variables to forecast the number of mainland tourists. Moreover, we consider the issue about recreational carrying capacity in Taiwan to provide suggestions for the government and tourism-related industry. The results show the market of mainland tourists is fluctuated by word-of-mouth information diffusion and has obvious seasonal fluctuation. The market potential is affected with the relative price and does not cause a significant variation by policy variables. Besides, in the carrying capacity part, all capacities of the four aspects are abundance for hotel, travel agency, tour guide, and tourist coach. In the future, the development of tourism market will be restricted by the limitation of tourist number policy and the government will need to positively solve the question of same tourist group.