A Study on Predicting Bad Debt of Account Receivable-A Example of Chemical Company in Taiwan

• Main Authors: CHEN,SHU-WAN, 陳淑婉
• Other Authors: Cheng-Feng Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/429ed5

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 企業管理系碩士在職專班 === 101 === According to the globalization and the substantial changes of the economic circulation, the sales are more competitive between the same trades than before. The transaction conditions of sales in traditional ways are using cash and L/C, but it gradually doesn’t work and instead by accounts receivables and notes receivables. This study aims to manage the account receivables and prevent the occurrence of the bad debts in an easy, objective and systematic way. According with the empirical results from the case study, this study builds a model to predict the occurrence probability of bad debts and expects to improve the management on the small and medium enterprises which are lack of the resources and employees. This study uses the case study which applied the Logistic regression model to predict the occurrence probability of bad debts by evaluating the factors of the transaction years with customers, transaction amounts, the level of credit, credit limit, the times of overdues and difficulties, the times of refund/exchange tickets, the financial ability/ personality of the president, the capital scales of the enterprises, the start-up years and the profit situations. The factors of the transaction years with customers, the times of difficulties, the times of refund/exchange tickets, the financial ability of the president, the start-up years and the profit situations are most significant. The results of this study show the probability of bad debts which can reach 60.71% in the cut off point of 0.3. Our results imply that the enterprises can change to the suitable sales model, transaction conditions, delivery control and adopt the supporting measures about creditor’s right in advance when the prediction of the occurrence of the bad debts is abnormal. The study also can prevent the occurrences of bad debts, the loss of the enterprises and further to reach the goal of zero occurrences of bad debts and the most beneficial results in the management.