Demand Forecast of Bio-industrial Reagents

• Main Authors: Fan, Yu-Hih, 范郁芝
• Other Authors: Dr. Chen, Juei-Chao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/56056499470170188537

碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 統計資訊學系應用統計碩士班 === 101 === Global biotech market in various countries to actively promote health care reform policy, biotech products have become integral part of technology products to life, widely used in medicine, agriculture, food, industrial processes and environmental protection, and so on, the key of promoting six emerging industries for our country. This study based on a case company providing product one to the product night, a total of nine items, from January 2008 to December 2012, a total of 60 months for the biological agents demand, using time series analysis of moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network analysis.According to the different periods of RMSE value and the calculated results that provide to the case company as a needs assessment for future reference biological reagents. Conclusions Display: 2008 to 2012 showed a continuous recession and expansion, and a rising trend to annual demand of biological reagents cyclical. The training and testing analysis know that, using artificial neural network analysis of predictive models, study to demand for biological reagents, results indicate that the RMSE values is the lowest, showing the most suitable demand forecasts is artificial neural network analysis method.