| Summary: | 碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 會計學系碩士班 === 101 === In this research, we observed the loss for the year turnaround in the future state of the company to investigate the loss of the relevant variables on the impact of corporate turnaround continuing. Modeling to predict the probability of correct degree turnaround is divided into two phases: the first reference Joos and Plesko (2005) model, extending Joos and Plesko (2005) correction to join an influential financial indicators, the second stage considerations corporate life cycle changes possible impact, and then postponed due to the company at different stages of the life cycle, its earnings persistence have significant differences.
Compare the predictive power of the regression model, the forecast does not consider the life cycle of the next year 's third annual turnaround observed probability , empirical results show that adding filters to the financial indicators with relevance , its high degree of predictive models correctly predict accurately 66.9 % . We found if consider which of the enterprise with different life cycle may influent six MJP LC Model, the prediction accuracy will be up to 69.5% . This indicates, the life cycle of sustained turnaround in the future there is a considerable degree of probability of impact, with a predictive capability.
For the observation of the next 2-3 years consecutive year of continued turnaround for the company forecast losses in the first turnaround in year t +1 , t +2 in the first years of the first year t +3 earnings persistence, and then compare the predictive power of the regression model , the kind of empirical mode detection accuracy is high, predicting the future of t +2 and t +3 years of sustained turnaround correct rate , the results of Accession has influence financial indicators and consider enterprise in which the different life cycle stages , the model 's predictive power and explanatory power optimization .
The research indicated that the modified MJP by LC Model results most predictive ability of the losses the company sustained losses degree rotation most explanatory power.
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