State Dependence in the Impact of Consumer Sentiment on Hotel Stock Performance

• Main Authors: Hsiao-Feng Li, 李曉鳳
• Other Authors: Ming-Hsiang Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54287107150001294328

碩士 === 國立中正大學 === 財務金融研究所 === 101 === This paper tests the hypothesis that changes in consumer confidence would have a significant influence on hotel stock performance and the effect could be attributed both to the discount rate and to hotel sales earnings (Hypothesis I). Furthermore, the hypothesis that there is a cyclical variation in the response of hotel stock performance to consumer confidence (Hypothesis II) will be also examined. Empirical results based on panel regression tests reveal that changes in consumer confidence can significantly benefit hotel stock returns by lowering the perceived riskiness of cash flows and by stimulating hotel sales earnings. Moreover, the results demonstrate that consumer confidence has a stronger impact on hotel stock returns in contraction than in expansion, and the effect could be attributed to the discount rate more than hotel sales earnings.