| Summary: | 碩士 === 真理大學 === 統計與精算學系碩士班 === 101 === The population aging and the decline of fertility rate has become a serious social problem nowadays. It is inevitable that the demand of medical care is increasing. However, the unceasingly progressing medical technology has caused the medical expense to rise constantly and increase the burden on the health expenditure of people. People thus purchase commercial health insurance products to mitigate risks.
It is common that the design of insurance products adopts age and gender as risk factors; however, marital status, physical condition, family medical history and occupation of insured are also possible risk factors. In this research, the National Health Insurance database was used to find risk factors of the incidence of hospitalization and thus apply to the design of medical products.
The hospitalization data from 1996 to 2010 of the one million sample of year 2005, which were drawn from the National Health Insurance research database, were used to estimate the hospitalization rate and the average days of hospitalization of unit type of insured. Lee-Carter model is used to fit and forecast the hospitalization rate.
There are significantly difference between distinct unit type of insured in hospitalization rate. The premiums of medical insurance of distinct unit type of insured will be calculated and thus providing the insurance company as a reference of insurance product design and underwriting.
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