| Summary: | 碩士 === 清雲科技大學 === 國際企業管理研究所 === 101 === The global credit rating company S&P lowered the credit ratings of U.S. Treasuries and European debt crisis triggered a global stock market crash and the domestic economy has been the impact of the global financial events in 2011. How to build credit risk models?Rreduce financial risk the probability of occurrence of the investors, business operators, financial institutions, credit review, academic research and government agencies decision-making reference, become a very important issue. Taiwan listed companies 76% of family-controlled company, family enterprises by family members responsible for the company and control of management. Therefore, this study consider the agency problem, the distinction between family and non-family business, try to identify the significant variablesaffectingcorporate performance, further comparative analysis of the difference. Of enterprises have yet to credit risk, to predict the probability that may occur to achieve the effect of prior warning and risk management.
Empirical analysis, using statistical methods to construct the logistic credit risk model, selected according to the financial statements of the 5 dimensions of 28 financial ratio variables, and 3 corporate governance variables,namely31explanatoryvariables tofilter out the significant variables affecting corporate performance. Sample period is from 2000 to 2011, a credit risk elect 63 family business with 37 non-family business, with Beaver (1966) 1:1 principle, select the same industry with similar scale of fixed assets normal company, for a total of 200 sample data. The empirical results show that the family industry, company performance indicators for the financial structure andsolvencyindicators; moderately reduce the debt ratio, interest coverage, and enhance the financial structure and solvency of the family business. Non-family industry, company performance indicators for the management capacity and profitability indicators; to improve the cash flow adequacy ratio, return on equity (ROE), return on total assets(ROA), can improve operations and profitability of non-family industry ability to reduce the likelihood of credit risk. Therefore, the empirical value and managerial implications, For the company''s accounting information to build a credit risk model can be effectively applied to financial forecasting.
|
|---|
