GDP and fertility--a global VAR analysis

• Main Authors: Ya-Tzu Kao, 高雅姿
• Other Authors: Teng-Yuan Hu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/84362855017929957471

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 產業經濟學系碩士班 === 100 === This study investigates the relationship between GDP and fertility by using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model developed by Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004) and Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2007) . The GVAR model can consider the transnational and cross-phase while the contemporaneous correlation is under control. The GVAR model is also capable of demonstrating global interaction and the promotion of regional impact analysis on the world economy by impulse response analysis and the spillover effects, which are the advantages and features of the GVAR model compared with traditional VAR models. The data are extracted from the WDI database of 2011, including 23 national data over 1980-2009. It treats the euro area as a single economy. In contrast to the traditional literature, this study finds the spillover effects of fertility rates exist in most countries. The per capita GDP of some countries can affect their own fertility rate. Also, per capita GDP of some foreign countries can affect their domestic fertility rate. Finally, impulse response analysis, focusing on the impact of the U.S., the euro area and the world shock, respectively, shows the dynamic impact transitive relation between GDP and fertility. The relationship between the foreign per capita GDP growth rate and their own fertility growth rate still varies across countries / regions.