The Impact of Demographic Structure on Real Estate Price : The Empirical Evidence in China

• Main Authors: Sheng-Yang Weng, 翁聖洋
• Other Authors: Chen-Yu Miao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/00927453929408132495

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 保險學系保險經營碩士班 === 100 === Over the past decade, the study has found that the demographic structure has an impact on the real estate market. The demographic structure in China is facing the shift from low pyramid to high pyramid, and the real estate market has gradually been privatized in the late 1990s; the relationship between these two are worth of discussion and analysis. Our research extends the model by G. Donald Jud and Daniel T. Winkler (2002). Taking China as an example, to use the data of economic variable rate of change and the ratio of demographic structure for the excess return of the real estate prices. The study found that the east provinces and west provinces lag a rate of change of total revenue for the excess return of the real estate prices have a significant positive correlation. The entire country and the west lag a rate of change of population ages 15-64 for the excess return of the real estate prices has significant positive correlation. The current rate of the east’s change of total revenue for the excess return of the real estate prices has significant positive correlation. The current rate of west’s change of disposable income for the excess return of the real estate prices has significant positive correlation. In addition, it is also found that no matter the lag or the changes of current ratio number who over the population of 65 ages for the whole country and all regions, the excess return of the real estate prices will change. Population ratio of the excess return of real estate prices over the population of 65 ages is more obvious.