| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 財務金融學系碩士班 === 100 === This study discuss the interaction between crude oil price, real estate, gold spot price and U.S. dollar exchange rate since 2005. The sample data is Texas Light Crude Oil Closing Price, U.S. Real Estate Fund Index daily quotation, Gold Spot Price and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate daily quotation, from June 17, 2005 to September 30, 2011. In this paper, the ARJI model is the tool to explore the jump intensity and volatility spillover effects of these four financial asset, and we use the VAR model to discuss the following issue.
The empirical results are as follows:
1. According to the Jarque-Bera normality test, we found that there is no significant evidence to proof the normality distribution of the four financial variables exist, and the fluctuate of the rate of return might be affected by random exception events.
2. ARJI model estimation results show that the mean return of crude oil, real estate index, gold and U.S. dollar exchange are significant at the 5% statistics level. It states that the exceptional information would be the reason of the instantaneous jumping behavior of these four financial elements, and in addition to U.S. dollar exchange rate, the jumping behavior of other variables cause by exceptional information most have negative impact on the return.
3. By the VAR test, we found the T-1 return of crude oil, real estate index, gold and U.S. dollar exchange rate are all significant, indicate that larger amount would be needed for these four financial elements to reinstate the equilibrium relationship when the equilibrium become deviate. And the T-1 return coefficients of real estate index, gold and U.S. dollar exchange rate is quite large, close to 1, indicate that the impacts of the T-1 change of these three variables to the current T term is almost completely positive correlation. For the T-1 coefficient of crude oil, Kaufmann (2004) and Hansen and Lindholt (2004) state that OPEC is powerful able to affect the price of crude oil. Therefore, we speculate that the tension in the Middle East and the war frequency might affect the West Texas crude oil price indirectly, make its impact of T-1 coefficient on the current T is not as strong as the other variables.
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