| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 環境工程與管理研究所 === 100 === The objective of this study was to investigate the relation between climate change due to greenhouse gas increasing, and damage of agricultural ecomony, human health and safety. It could be divided into two parts; first part was to collect the analysis factors from 1961 to 2009, included the volumn of CO2 emission, GDP, the numbers of population, disaster, average temperature, and annual rainfall. We also calculated linear regression to set up the relation between climate factors and cost of agricultural ecomony, the disaster death and medical expenditure. Second part was to calculate the benefits of CO2 and air pollutant reduction and substituted into Air Resource Co-benefits Model (ARCoB Model) to campare the benefits from 2 types of reduction.
According to the first part result, based on A1F1 scenario, the total economy cost was NT$ 4,554,377,520 in Taiwan in 2100 (currency in 2100 would be adjusted by GDP and inflation), and the cost of agricultural ecomony, the disaster death and medical expenditure was NT$82.12/tCO2, NT$36.45/tCO2, NT$5,594/tCO2 separately from 2010 to 2100. The medical expenditure was the maximum and around 97% of the total cost. Because it was constant and extensive expenditure, for example, the cliamet change resulted in chronic disease would make medical expenditure for each year.
Second part was to investigate the benefit for CO2 emission reduction policy of transport, residential and commercial sectors. Accroding to the result, the hybrid electric vehicle was the maximum benefit among all policies of transport sector. Campred with the gasoline car, it could save NT$6,714.16/year-vehicle. For the residential and commercial sectors, the thetungsten lamp replaced with the compact fluorescent lamp was the maximum benefit among all policies, and saved NT$ 72,212,269,000/year among all households in Taiwan.
To analyze the benefit of emission reduction further, for saving medical expenditure, the benefit of CO2 emission reduction was better than air pollutant; for increasing the the value of statistical life, the air pollutant was better than another. Due to the healthy hazard from climate change was more than air pollutant.
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