The Determinations Of Automobiles Sales in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Wu, Chia Lung, 吳佳龍
• Other Authors: Wang, Kai Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/66332680021062679041

碩士 === 東海大學 === 管理碩士在職專班 === 100 === This study investigates the determinants of auto sales in Taiwan from the overall dimensions, including the macroeconomic factors, industry properties and market mechanism factors. Moreover, it explores the difference in sales at the firm level not only by distinguishing the domestic manufacturers and importers but also involving three popular individual brands i.e., Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi into consideration. First, at the firm level, the empirical result suggests the long-run cointegration relationship between domestic auto sales and imported auto sales as well as among the three domestic auto brands despite evident crowding-out effect for the former and severe competition among the latter, which both cause the deviation from the long-run equilibrium at the short term but whatever reverted to the equilibrium in the long term. Second, at the overall level, the results based on multivariate regression analysis are summarized as follows: in terms of macroeconomic factors, Taiwan’s industrial product index exerts negative influence on the various types of auto sales except imported ones; Taiwan weighted stock index has a positive effect solely on the domestic auto sales. The increases in interest rates or unemployment rates lead to reductions in all types of auto sales. In terms of industry properties, the oil price has a relatively positive effect on imported auto sales since the latter enjoys the advantage of fuel-efficient or energy saving and carbon or hybrid functions over the domestic cars, while the steel price has a negative effect on all car sales. In addition, the ghost month effect of July in lunar calendar has an obvious negative impact on Toyota auto sales. In terms of market mechanism factors, various types of auto sales are negatively correlated to the shocks of mortgage crisis or global financial crisis. The tax-free policy exerts negative effect on the domestic auto sales, which indicates the latter are not benefitted from the tax-reduction. In contrast to the expectation, luxury tax has a positive impact on imported auto sales, which suggests two possibilities: either the consumer preference for the advanced imported cars is not affected by the economic situation and tax levy, or the consumers have purchased the advanced imported cars in advance prior to the implementation of the luxury tax. Keywords: automotive industry, cointegration, VECM, Multi Regression Analysis