| Summary: | 碩士 === 亞洲大學 === 資訊工程學系碩士在職專班 === 100 === Kinmen is comprehensively expanding tourism industry in order to construct an “international tourist and recreational island”, by promoting the local sceneries, exploring existing tourism resources, and enhancing the quality of hotels. Prediction model for the tourist population in Kinmen was established by GM(1, 1). The results showed that the accuracy rate is at least 90%. It is predicted that in 2012, the number of tourists in Kinmen will reach 1,341,208, and in 2013, the number will reach 1,867,974. In order to avoid the reduction of tourism quality in popular tourist attractions, this study treated the region of Kinmen as the scope, and estimated that the proper daily loading of tourists is 13,440 person time. Travel agencies can adjust the order of itineraries to avoid gathering too many tourists in the same tourist spot, and solve the problem of overloading in the tourist spots.
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