| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 會計學系 === 100 === In recent years, there were some cases of bankruptcies of the companies in the Taiwan’s stock market, and the financial distress for these companies might occur due to cash flow problems or poor management. To operate an enterprise, many risks such as operational risk, strategic risk, financial risk and cash flow at risk are often encountered. Among these risks, the cash flow at risk may endanger a profit-making corporation, in a plight of cash shortage because of insufficient cash flow, and this may bring about a major financial crisis to the financial status of a corporation.
This study is planned to calculate and identify the most reasonable way, which can evaluate the expected risks of the enterprise by measuring cash flow. Three measures, including Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA), Operating Cash Flow (OCF) and Free Cash Flow (FCF), are used as basis to assess which one is the most suitable measure base.
In this study, EBITDA, OCF, and FCF were made variables in the adopted model. FCF was further divided into FCF1, FCF2 and FCF3 respectively, in accordance to different formulas. A total of five variables were compared with one another through the above-mentioned methods, and the best forecast results were generated from the cash flow at risk of OCF and the free cash flow at risk of FCF1 from TEJ.
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