An Integrated Model of Scenario Planning and Decision Tree Analysis for Financial Planning of Smart Phone New Product Development

• Main Authors: CHIAO-YING WU, 吳巧瑩
• Other Authors: Jei-Zheng Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/27087735718121845356

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 企業管理學系 === 100 === Mobile communication products have been becoming very popular due to the integration of communication, entertainment and business functions with the simplified and fashionable designs. New product development projects of mobile phones very often they encounter limitation of resource or budget, resulting in limited choices of project investments. Moreover, new product developments come with high risks and uncertainties. When financially evaluating new product investments, the most commonly asked question is whether the projects are worth investing in or not, and also how to combine all uncertain elements into the evaluation including the value created with time after launch. This study combines qualitative and quantitative approaches via integration of scenario planning and decision tree analysis that systematically generate scenarios reflecting reality and assist enterprises with a practical method of aessessing the value of projects. The proposed approach was demonstrated and examined based on a numerical example with real settings from a Taiwanese mobile phone ODM company. Results showed that flexibility of decision tree analysis lowers the risk to minimal and R&D resources are appropriately distributed; moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed to discover the key advantage and improvable factors. The proposed approach can also help to evaluate the possibilities under different scenarios and happening of uncertain events with asymmetric branches that is more practicable than the binary trees of real option analysis.