| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 統計學系 === 100 === This article discusses the relationship between “house prices” and “market fundamentals”. We establish the Panel Data model to determined fundamental value. Fundamental value is determined by the market in general economical variables (lending rate, disposable income, stock price index, construction materials price index, GDP and CPI), compare it with the real house price. We want to examine the size of the bubble in the major cities of Asia, including Taipei, Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai.
The results show that a bubble in Taipei and Hong Kong in 2011, accounting for about 40% , in Singapore in 2011, accounting for about 30%. However, the size of the bubble is not significant in the Tokyo and Seoul.
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