The Influence and Forecasting Model of Macroeconomics Factors on Iron ore Price

• Main Authors: Lu, MingChuan, 呂明權
• Other Authors: 古永嘉
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/97032286713346932000

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 100 === This research is focus on finding out how the macroeconomic data affect the iron ore price and we used 17 variables related to macroeconomic, such as CPI、M1 monetary supply、exchange rate、stock price index… … etc. And we use the monthly data during 2005 May to 2011 June totally 74 months data to conduct multiple regression analysis、stepwise regression analysis and factor analysis in order to find out the most significant factor which affects the iron ore price. Through the research we can find out there are 4 major factors. Factor 1 is the iron ore price demand factor. Factor 2 is the business cycle lead-index factor. Factor 3 is the business co-index factor. Factor 4 is the stock price index factor. All the 4 major factors exist a positive relation between the iron ore price. Factor 1、Factor 3、 Factor 4 are statistically significant, but not Factor 2.