Modeling Prediction in Annual Productions of Tilapia, Milkfish, Eel and Grouper by feed supplies in Taiwan

• Main Author: 蕭弘毅
• Other Authors: Sha Miao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/95862929883140277505

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 水產養殖學系 === 100 === Fishery Statistics Yearbook data is an important reference for policy planning and academic research which aims for correct statistics to government, academia and research in the development of conduct industry. The accuracy of Taiwan Fisheries Statistics Yearbook data is often doubtful caused by many factors. Therefore, only during the investigative process to check and fix the errata of raw data by estimate models to enhance the accuracy and the scope of application in the Fisheries Statistics Yearbook. Different with the estimate model established by using the basic production statistic information, feed supply information is collected to establish model for annual culture yield of several species (including tilapia, milk fish, eel and grouper) in this study. The yield of aquaculture feeds and feed conversion rate (FCR) are collected from annual report of feed industry during 2003 – 2011 to understand the yield estimated from model which is relative to the statistical data from the Yearbook. As the result shows, estimated yield of tilapia is below the data in Yearbook, and the trend of growth over time is contrary. The yield of milk fish from estimate model is close to 90,000 tons higher than the statistical data. Some operators declare the amount of feed supply by combining the total amount of feed supply from tilapia and cold fish which causes a gap far from the truth. The amount of eel feeds supply decrease year by year causes reduced estimated yields of eel. The gaps are small, and all the trends are similar between model estimated and statistical data in Yearbook. The grouper yields in model estimated are lower than the statistic data’s, but the gaps reduce year by year. It indicates the utilization rate of artificial diet is enhancing in grouper culture farming. The management types of feed manufacturers are company in the majority. Therefore, the accuracy of statistical data of aquaculture feed in Taiwan is high. It’s possible to analysis the status of culture industry by the feed supply. However, the culture species in Taiwan are more than the amount of feed products, the farmers don’t use the specific feed for culture. Otherwise, some farmers prefer to use the meal of fishes or compound the feed by their own formula. These cause the lack of statistical data. The development of aquaculture industry not only depends on the upgrading of technique, but the development of the artificial diet. According above, model established by artificial diet in aquaculture for estimating the annual yields of culture industry. Complete the statistical data of feed information will increase the accuracy of estimated yield. And the development trends of industry in each species will be understood.