A Study of Housing Affordability- Taipei、Kaohsiung ＆ Shanghai

• Main Authors: Wei-pin Lin, 林暐濱
• Other Authors: Pi-ying Lai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/21374026335357723959

碩士 === 國立屏東商業技術學院 === 不動產經營系(所) === 100 === The household’s housing affordability is one of the major factors of housing policy in Taiwan. It’s also important for the real estate market. In this study we divide into two main topics for housing affordability. The first topic is to investigate the situation of the housing affordability. People who want to purchase houses have to ask banks for a loan, so the mortgage rate is also one of the important factors in housing affordability. We use the Housing Affordability Index to make more of an understanding for the situation of housing affordability. We also make a use of a Vector Error Correction Model to explore the influenced factors and connections between housing affordability and housing price. We hope to in-depth assay current housing affordability and its connected facts in Taiwan by the meta-analysis we have mentioned above. We create PIR(House Price to Income Ratio) and HAI(Housing Affordability Index) to understand current situation of housing affordability. The ways to research these issues contain the Housing Affordability Index、Co integration、Vector Error Correction Models and Variance Decompositions. The paper indicates that PIR(House Price to Income Ratio) increased from 9 times to 14 times in Taipei from 2009 to 2010, and HAI(Housing Affordability Index) decreased from 100% to 73%, the housing price raised as much as twice in two years. HAI didn’t get worse because the bank kept lower rates. Housing affordability in Kaohsiung was much better than the one in Taipei. PIR in Kaohsiung kept from 4 times to 7 times and HAI kept from 100% to 200%; PIR in Shanghai was the worst in 2010, and it’s getting progressively worse. There’s only 15% of the people who have the ability to afford a house. Unit Root Test and Co integration found that the influenced factors of housing affordability in Taipei, Kaohsiung and Shanghai are all stable. For the long-term situation, they will change in the same direction, and finally tend to equalize. It means they have factors over a long rang. The Vector Error Correction Model shows that the error correction terms in Taipei, Kaohsiung and Shanghai are negative. It means that the influencing factors of housing affordability in the three cities possess the ability to adjust errors. The obviously positive effects of housing affordability in Taipei are the per Capita GDP in Taiwan which lag indicators show for four months; the negative effect is the housing price in Taipei which lag indicators show for one to two months and the Taiwan Stock Exchange lag indicators show for two months. The negative effects of housing affordability in Kaohsiung are housing prices which lag indicators show for one to three months and per Capita GDP in Taiwan that lag indicators show for two months. The Shanghai composite index lag indicators show for up to two months & that is a positive effect; the negative effect is per Capita GDP in China that lag indicators show for one to two months. Furthermore, Variance Decomposition shows that the most important influenced factor of housing affordability in Taipei and Kaohsiung is per Capita GDP in Taiwan; per Capita GDP in China is also the most important one for housing affordability. Keywords：Housing affordability Housing, Price to Income Ratio, Housing Affordability Index, Vector Error Correction Model