Assessment of shutdown of sixth naphtha cracker complex of changes in air pollution and health impacts by using BenMAP

• Main Authors: Yi-Yu Hung, 洪怡喻
• Other Authors: Jin-Long Liu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16625197492722848675

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 產業經濟研究所 === 100 === Based on an assumption of shutting down of Formosa Petrochemical Corporation’s (FPCC) sixth naphtha cracker complex, we used the software of BenMAP to estimate the impacts and benefits of air quality on health associated with changes of Ozone and PM2.5 under baseline scenario—July 18, 2010-July 24, 2010 and control scenario—July 26, 2010-August1, 2010. Compared to its normal business operation, we found that the changes of Ozone were associated with the decrease of 17,176 ODUR treatments and 962,391ARI treatments on average. Using health impact functions, we estimated that 1,907 all-cause deaths could be prevented with reductions in the concentration of PM2.5. Furthermore, we used the method of aggregation, pooling and valuation to sum up the health impacts and benefits. The results showed that compared to normal business operation, there were some changes in air qualities and health if FPCC’s sixth naphtha cracker complex shut down: The concentration of Ozone decreased 16.49 ppb, resulting in the decreasing of 181,386 ODUR and ARI treatments and benefiting approximately 14 billion dollars. Health benefited 420 billion under the condition of decreasing of the concentration of PM2.5.