A Systemic Fitness Study on the Construction of Foresight Model with Futures Research Methodology

• Main Authors: Chi-Ying Yang, 楊奇穎
• Other Authors: Yih-Chearng Shiue
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19317982730092351713

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 100 === Recently, countries implement National Foresight Programes and invest in research and development to achieve competitive advantage and enhance social welfare. Meanwhile, organizations integrate multi-discipline foresight knowledge to help decision making and switch the focus from technology foresight to strategic foresight. This study aims to combine theories and concepts from strategic management, foresight and futures research methodology three fields. Corresponding to the level of methodology, related theories/concepts, stages/process and methods/steps are introduced. By applying scenario planning, markov chain and dynamic programming, a four-stage, thirty-one-process foresight model is constructed. Taken together, this study establishs a comprehensive and consistent foresight model. Based on vision, organizations determine its long-term future benchmarks and understand the transformation of key factors with interaction between driving forces, events and issues through the extention of markov process. Next, organizations can capture key factors and therefore sense trends to build alternative scenarios. Last, organizations may use dynamic programming or backcasting methods to draw out the most appropriate develepomental path and recognize the timing of alignment. All in all, this model points out how and when to systemically take futures research methods to solve specific problems and formulating strategies to shape and achieve preferable future states.