| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 大氣物理研究所 === 100 === Taiwan is situated within one of the frequent tropical cyclone tracks around Pacific Ocean. Such storms not only bring forth abundant rainfall, but also cause serious damages. Using typhoon cases that shared relatively the same typhoon positions, which would yield similar rainfall distributions in Taiwan, Chen (2010) sought to improve the tropical rainfall potential technique (TRaP). But this method didn’t consider the different rainfall distribution between westward and northward-moving typhoons.
This study mainly analyzes westward-moving typhoons causes that made landfall in Taiwan. Chen’s (2010) method is employed by further considering the terrain effect to improve TRaP in Taiwan. The results of this study obviously improved when compared to the original TRaP. For 25 dependent cases from 1997 to 2008, the mean correlation coefficient increased from 0.08 to 0.69. Meanwhile, the root mean square error decreased from 171.6mm to 120.3mm and the mean bias decreased from -25.8mm to 2.9mm. For typhoon Morakot in 2009, the result of this study was able to obtain a better performance over Chen (2010). Although the correlation coefficient was both equal to 0.9, the root mean square error could decrease from 305.7mm to 256.4mm and the mean bias could drop from -129.8mm to -74.3mm. Consequently, the typhoon tracks should be considered when seeking to improve the TRaP technique in Taiwan.
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