Developing Risk Indices for the Risk Assessment of Taoyuan Water Supply System

• Main Authors: Wan-yu Lien, 連婉余
• Other Authors: Ray-shyan Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32296045571322070379

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 100 === In Taiwan, Shortage Index (SI) developed by Hydraulic Engineering Center of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is traditionally applied to evaluate water supply system. However, Shortage Index is limited because it does not describe the characteristic about the water shortage events. This study uses factors such as reliability, resiliency and vulnerability as indicators. These indicators are meant to represent the possibility of deficit event happened, the possibility of the system recovered after the occurrence of a failure, and the severity of its damage, respectively. Sustainability Index, combining reliability, resiliency and vulnerability, is defined in this study to estimate drought risk of the system. The Taoyuan water supply system was chosen as a case study. To take into account cases where water demand increased or storage capacity decreased, this study utilized inflow data from 1964 to 2004 to simulate the difference between the application of the hedging and unrestricted operation. According to the result, the system adopting the hedging would extend the duration of the failure event. Although it reduces the value of reliability and vulnerability, the value of resiliency would be promoted especially in those cases where the capacity are set to be more than 80% of the current capacity. In terms of Sustainability Index, the operation of the hedging is better than the unrestricted operation. It is particularly significant in those cases where the capacity are set to be more than 80% of the current capacity.