| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 100 === With the global financial crisis, banking industry has suffered the most damage and had great impact to the world economic. Some banks went bankruptcy in the global financial crisis; while some banks still grow or remain stable, we could infer that banking industry configuration really matters and the research mainly to disclosure underlying reasons.
The research is based on two theory sustainable competitive advantage and CAMEL –related indicators (early warning system) in banking industry. The author adopt Bayesian and failure credit model to infer and predict failure/non-failure and competitive advantage/disadvantage groups, furthermore, trying to find a function or framework to interpret the underlying reasons of results.
Most prior banking prediction researches are focus on identifying effective indicators and models that can be applied to develop an early warning system for individual bank failure. However, during global financial crisis, there is still a large amount of bankrupted banks, we can easily see that detecting risk is not enough to facing the even more complicated and dynamic competitive surroundings. In strategy point of view, there are some research integrate the financial indicators and strategy theory to interpret sustainable competitive advantage in the industry.
In conclusion, the research mainly find banking industry configurations and successfully to predict the fail and competitive advantage dimension after global financial crisis of banks in U.S. As a matter of fact, also try to advance early warning system and Powell axis based on Bayesian analysis to take global financial crisis as a reference point to see underlying reasons whether banks to grow or fail.
From a long term perspective, to strengthen the managers should take a risk seriously– instead of just complying with rules is might be underlying reasons what drives a business to sustainable growth in dynamic business banking industry.
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