Estimation of Freeway Origin-Destination Matrix by Hierarchical Gravity Model: An Application of Deming-Stephan-Furness Procedure

• Main Author: 許淳彧
• Other Authors: 卓訓榮
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/89404041143691852482

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 運輸科技與管理學系 === 100 === Origin-Destination matrix is an important information in transportation planning, traffic management, and many other transportation researches. Traditional origin-destination matrix estimation methods, i.e., interview and license plate survey, require tremendous resources and hard to cover both temporal and spatial domains. Many mathematical models are developed to improve the aforementioned deficiencies’, and the gravity model is likely the most well-known among those. However, the monotonic cost function involved in gravity model failed to describe the non-monotonic behavior on how travel costs affect spatial distribution. Therefore, this study combined the hierarchical concept into gravity model and solve the problem with Deming-Stephan-Furness iterative process. With origin and destination flows as input and targets to minimize the difference between observed and estimated link flows, this method is able to estimate a static origin-destination matrix without prior information about the target matrix. In order to understand the result of the established method, this study compares the estimated and real origin-destination matrix derived from Taiwan High Speed Rail. Afterward, the method is implemented on the estimation of freeway origin-destination matrix. As the numerical example derived from Taiwan High Speed Rail shows, the hierarchical gravity model can achieve a lower estimation error.