| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 運輸科技與管理學系 === 100 === By implementing the Metro Style policy of TRA, passenger volume grows rapidly and steadily. Railway system obviously becomes one of the most important transportation in Taiwan. However, a problem exists over years and has no significant improvement, punctuality rate, which can not reach to the level of developed countries like Europe or Japan. Generally speaking, most of the delays can refer to railway accidents and thus are reasonable to have a deeper analysis to the accidents of TRA. This study synthesizes three-year-data(2008~2010) of railway accidents providing by TRA and analyzes the characteristics of railway accidents by descriptive statistics using SPSS to explore the frequency of accident, how long the durations in average are and how the railway accidents affect. Duration model of survival analysis is then applied to analyze the critical factors of railway accident duration. The result of descriptive statistics shows: the average accident duration of TRA accidents is ”47.07” minutes, accidents affect average “5.00” numbers of runs for train and average totally ”88.87” minutes. The result of survival analysis shows: the Lognormal and Loglogistic distributions come with proper fit to data and are selected as appreciate parametric model. The model estimation results show that a wide variety of factors affect accident duration. In general, accidents in Apil-June and July-September has significantly longer accident duration than in January-March and Octorber-December; accidents occurring between stations has significantly longer accident duration than at stations; Sunday is also found to have significantly longer accident duration than other days of a week. The findings of this study provide a demonstration of method to assess accident management programs.
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