Modeling the Mode Choice Behaviors of Commuters：Using the Mixed Logit Model

• Main Author: 陳韋穎
• Other Authors: 邱裕鈞
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/84288476159504754184

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 交通運輸研究所 === 100 === Due to the high dependency on private vehicles of travellers in Taiwan, the traffic conditions in many surface roadway systems are rather congested and the problems of energy consumption and emissions are serious, especially in urban areas. To promote the usage of public transportation is undoubtedly the one of the most effective countermeasures, which can largely curtail the traffic demand of private vehicles and more effectively use the roadway systems. However, without knowing the preferences of travellers in choosing transport modes, it is impossible to propose effective marketing and improvement strategies for public transportation. Additionally, to acknowledge the remarkably different service levels of public transportation and different convenient levels in using private vehicles in different districts/townships where the traveller live, significant differences must exist in their mode choice preferences and decisions. Thus, the heterogeneity of mode choice preferences should be considered while analyzing their mode choice behaviours. As we know, population density is one of key factors explain the provision of public transportation. Based on this, this study aims to separately develop the mode choice models for those travellers living in the districts/townships with different levels of population density and further to use of the mixed logit model to acknowledge the heterogeneity of respondents even living in the areas with same level of population density. For model estimation, a nationwide post-mailed questionnaire survey on commuters was conducted with a total of 5769 valid questionnaires returned. According to the population density, respondents living in the 348 districts/townships of Taiwan inland are classified into five groups: high-rural area, low-rural area, suburban, urban, and central business centre. In addition, due to the small number of valid questionnaires, the first three groups are further combined and defined as the rural area. Traditional multinomial logit models (MNL) and mixed logit models (MXL) for rural, urban and CBD areas are separately compared and estimated. The estimation results show that MXL models for three groups perform significantly better than MNL models in terms of likelihood ratio tests, suggesting the existence of heterogeneity in mode choice behaviours. In addition, four generic variables of walking time, waiting time, in-vehicle time and travel cost and two generic latent variables of comfort and convenience are the key factors affecting mode choices of commuters. Especially, the heterogeneity in these four factors are all significantly tested for rural areas, while only three factors (waiting time, in-vehicle time, and travel cost) for urban areas and only two factors (walking time and waiting time) for CBD areas are significant, suggesting the heterogeneity is more significant in the remote areas with low population density. Thus, different types of public transportation, such as demand responsive transit system (DRTS) should be introduced into these areas so as to attract the commuters with rather diverse preferences. Finally, elasticity analysis and marketing share prediction are conducted to identify the key successful factors for public transportation. Corresponding marketing and improvement strategies for public transportation are then proposed accordingly.