| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 資源工程學系碩博士班 === 100 === Since the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011, the nuclear power safety and energy policy reform have emerged and became urgent issues on a global scale. In response to the event, the Government issued “The New Energy Policy” at that same year. The policy objectives are to ensure a resilient power supply, to maintain reasonable electricity rate, and to achieve our CO2 reduction commitments to UNFCCC.
Considering the importance of “The New Energy Policy”, it is desirable to conduct full-fledged study as much as possible. The purpose of this study is to develop a Economic-Electricity-Environment model by using System Dynamics approach. Providing trade-offs analysis to discuss the electricity balance strategies. Systematic investigation on “The New Energy Policy” will be implemented.
This study analyzes whether there will be a power gap under the different alternatives of nuclear supply in Taiwan. The scenarios designs with this research are based on “The New Energy Policy”, including the main dimensions like the supply, the demand side and the pricing mechanism. This study will provide trade-offs analysis based on the above scenarios to discuss the electricity balance strategies of Taiwan.
Through the analysis of our research, it shows that if the first, second and third Nuclear Power Plant would to be shut down on the appointed date, there will be a power gap in the future. However, according to the simulation results, it shows that the suspicion of the power gap can be solved by all kinds of scenarios, but cannot achieve our CO2 reduction commitments to UNFCCC.
Regarding to the strategy implications of this study, decision makers can come up with the best choice for Taiwan. Policy implications are:
Due to the consideration of economic growth, the development of lower carbon energy use should not only be on the supply side, but also improving the energy efficiency with new technology innovations on the demand side. However the cost is the increase of CO2 emissions.
Considering the promise to a more sustainable environment, the increase of electricity prices with the pricing mechanism can result in a reduction of electricity consumption. However, the cost is an impact on the economic developments of our country.
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