| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 資源工程學系碩博士班 === 100 === As average temperature of the atmosphere gradually increases, the greenhouse effect has become a critical concern recently. Since coal burning emits lots of CO2, how to reduce the amount of CO2 emits from coal-fired power plant becomes an important issue. One of the CO2 emission reduction measures is carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In fuel combustion technologies, oxy-coal combustion can increase the concentration of CO2 in the flue gas, making the back-end carbon capture process easier. Oxy-coal combustion becomes the focus of current R＆D.
The main purpose of this research is to forecast and propose R＆D strategies for the technologies of the key components in oxy coal-fired power generation combined with carbon capture process, including oxygen separation device, burner, flue gas treatment device, and CO2 capture device. It used to provide technology forecasting and strategy development from management perspective. That raises the problem that some thinking of technology staffs is ignored. In response, this research is to integrate the knowledge of management and technology to enhance the practical value of technology forecasting. First, we predict the relative pace of development and stability of the four component technologies by the technology growth curve method. Then, we build the technology roadmap to show the vacancy of patent of burner technologies which contents more patents published. Finally, we integrate the concept of time (growth curve) and spatial (technology roadmap) to forecast the oxy coal-fired power generation technologies.
The method of technology forecasting is life cycle analysis. The forecasting is based on the patent analysis, using Loglet Lab software to simulate growth curve (Logistics curve). The technology roadmap built in this study refers to the typical roadmap constructed by Sematech. It was modified to meet the analysis of equipment technologies in oxy coal-fired power generation process. The timeline concept of technology roadmaps provides the R＆D path of each technology and shows different paths between them. The technology roadmap also visualizes the patent vacancies and provides R＆D references.
The result of the forecasting shows that the technologies of oxygen separation device, flue gas treatment device, and CO2 capture device are in the growth stage of life cycle. The technologies of burner are in the mature stage. From the integrated analysis of growth curve and technology roadmap, we provide some strategies for the R＆D of burner technologies. The technology leaders should continue their R＆D activities and apply for patents of burner technologies. They also do some research for oxy-coal burners now. On the other hand, the technology followers should first strengthen the basis of burner technologies. With better knowledge of burner technologies, the technology followers then develop and create oxy-coal burners. Besides, they can refer to technology roadmap in this study to avoid existing patents.
|
|---|
