| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 企業管理學系所 === 100 === With the increasing of environmental awareness, governments and enterprises all encourage people to use green products. However, according to the results of a survey-based research, majority of the consumers realize the importance of environmental protection and they know to buy eco-friendly products as well. But some studies indicate that there exists a value action gap between purchase intention and real buying behavior. Consequently, retailers do not know how many green products they should buy from the suppliers. Ordering too much stock would result in high inventory costs; on the other hand, ordering too little stock would increase shortage costs. Therefore, demand uncertainty from the consumers will affect retailers’ procurement of green products greatly.
In order to solve the problem of demand uncertainty, this study proposes a flexible contracting mechanism for retailers to analyze green purchasing under uncertainty. We adopt binomial tree of the real option model as the main tool. In our model, we relax the assumption of time step being small and get some critical parameter such as P, u and d. Finally, we can get the price of a flexible contract. In the final part, we demonstrate numerical examples. In order to realize the trend of the price of the flexible contract and the expected profits, we carry out the sensitivity analysis for the variance, the quantity of the fixed contract and profit rate respectively.
From the numerical examples, we find that with the rising of the standard deviation, meaning the uncertainty in the market increases, the flexible contract price will increase and the expected profit will increase. In addition, when the quantity of the fixed contract increases, meaning the quantity of the flexible contract decrease, it will lead flexible contract price going down and the expected profit going down. Finally, when the profit rate increases, flexible contract price and the expected profit will increase as well.
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