A simulation study for evaluating focused tests of cluster detection

• Main Author: 蔡丞庭
• Other Authors: 余清祥
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/00298178936669834261

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 統計研究所 === 100 === The cancer incidence and mortality rate in Taiwan have been increasing over the past 30 years. Previous studies indicate that the pollution sources, especially for those creating air pollution and excess radiation, are one of the potential causes for the increment. Correctly, detecting the location of possible sources of contaminants can help for cancer prevention. In spatial statistics, focused test can be used to determine if the intensity rate are higher around a possible pollution source. We will introduce and evaluate frequently used focused tests and apply them in Taiwan. First we use computer simulation to compare the power of focused tests in different scenarios, such as study region and cluster shape. Next, we apply the focused tests to Taiwan cancer mortality data, in order to decide if the cancer mortality rates are higher around Chinshan nuclear power plant, Maanshan nuclear power plant, and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker. The results show that the cancer mortality rates around Chinshan nuclear power plant and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker are significantly higher.