| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 風險管理與保險研究所 === 100 === The purpose of this paper is to examine the Retirement Shortfall in Taiwan by using replacement rate. Building model with the poll data which is commissioned by Manulife Life Insurance and conducted by Market Survey Research Center of National Chengchi University, we found that the populations of the civil servants can achieve 60% replacement rate after retirement, but 24 percent of labors can’t reach the 60% income replacement rate. Besides, the retirement shortfall of labors become worse after adjusting by the overestimate of rate of return and underestimate of longevity risk. In short, labor people should contribute more to their pension in case they may have inadequate retirement situation. Using logistic regression, we found that people of high-income have tendency to feel overly optimistic of their retirement shortfall, vice versa. Social security and pension benefit provide less replacement rate for people of high-income, so rich people need highly save rate.
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