A Study on the Relationship of Gold Price, Oil Price, Inflation and Money Supply

• Main Authors: Shin-Yi Lee, 李欣宜
• Other Authors: Chien-Hui Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 101
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/f6z59s

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 國際企業系 === 100 === The major purpose of this study is to explore the interactive relationships among gold price, oil price, inflation and money supply based on the time series data from Feb. 1991 to Feb. 2012 as the sample. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is carried out to empirically analyze the effects. The results demonstrate that （1）all the four variables, gold price, oil price, inflation and money supply, have a cointergrating relationship, indicating the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship among these four variables.（2）From the Granger Causality Test, several findings stand out. First, the uni-directional causality running from the inflation and oil price to gold price is found. Second, inflation and oil price have bi-directional causality. Third, inflation and money supply have a uni-directional causality. Finally, money supply and oil price have a uni-directional causality.（3）In general, the study shows that the relationships among gold price, oil price, inflation and money supply have changed due to Subprime Mortgage Storm in 2007.