The Cognitive Analysis Of Players In Gambling: A Case Of Sports Lottery

• Main Authors: Liu, Yushen, 劉昱伸
• Other Authors: Chang, Ning
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65817221774633746467

碩士 === 義守大學 === 企業管理學系 === 100 === Sports lottery is popular in Taiwan because it is simple, pluralistic and beneficial for the public welfare. The outcome of betting is largely determined by whether the gamblers believe that the game is truly about probability or technically influenced. The fact that the sports lottery companies have made profits for a long while has eliminated the possibility that the design is more advantageous for the house. The non-existent causality believed by gamblers has created the idea of hot hand and gambler's fallacy, causing false perception on betting, thereby saving the house. The researchers spent two months observing and recording 15 sports lottery experts' reasoning for outcome judgment (winning or loss) and their accuracy rate. Next, according to their outcome judgment reasoning, the researchers found four key factors used by punters on betting, the earned run average (ERA) of the starters, the average scores from about ten matches, the ERA of the relievers, and the length of the winning streaks, and used these four factors as the base for formulating a questionnaire on the social judgment theory. This questionnaire was used to investigate punters' decision-making knowledge for outcome judgment. The study result suggests that overall, the length of the winning streaks is the most emphasized factor by the subjects, and the subjects believe that the higher the better (a positive correlation). The second is the ERA of the starters, which also displays a positive correlation. The remaining two are less valued. As a result, subjects are affected by hot hand rather than the gambler’s fallacy. Furthermore, the age, gender and number of bet do not have a significant impact on subjects’ outcome judgment. It can be found from the record that the average accuracy rate of the 15 sports lottery expert is 48% only. In other words, for sports lottery, winning or not is only a matter of chance rather than techniques.