| Summary: | 碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 工業工程與系統管理學研究所 === 100 === Technology forecasting is a very important tool for product development decision-makers. Using technology forecasting methods to predict the progress of the technical specifications of future products, can not only help businesses to grasp the possibility of future market dynamics, but can also assist product development decision-makers effectively to formulating product strategies for future development. However, in order to estimate future progress of product specifications, in addition to using technology forecasting methods to predict the future trends of the relevant technical specifications, another factor to consider is the contradictory relationship between the technical specifications. Because there are many relevant factors in the products specifications, sometimes the decision-makers must face to enhance performance of one specification but would be sacrificed another one. Therefore, when the decision-makers estimate future product specifications, use as the individual specifications can’t be decided on in isolation, also need to consider interdependent or contradictory relationships of the various specifications. For this purpose, this study proposes the concept of a technical specifications decision space which traditional technology forecasting methods are used to collect information on relevant specifications, and the Pearl curve model is used to establish the basic technical specifications indicators of the progress model. This is supplemented by an analysis of the technical specifications contradictory relationships, which is verified by the Pearson correlation is coefficient. The formation of the technical specifications decision space model could make up the lack of traditional prediction methods, and could also be effectively used in product development decision-making. This study takes the consumer digital camera as an example, collects the data on simple and semi-professional market segment specifications, and through the research methods proposed in this study, establishes a consumer digital camera technology specification decision-making space in the next few years, hope to provide decision-makers in future product development decision-making reference.
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