| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際經營與貿易研究所 === 100 === Since the occurrence of financial tsunami in 2008, there have appeared many bankruptcy companies around the world. The phenomenon has caused great loss of investors and has attracted the attention of researchers in terms of the accurate estimation of crisis alarming models. Previous studies on crisis alarming of company rarely estimate crisis alarming models with the crisis companies that have adopted the policy of stock repurchases, and often estimate the models in a time series or cross-sectional data framework. That is, few of them have ever used panel data approach to estimate crisis alarming models. Thus, this study uses the estimation method of panel data and selects the crisis companies that have adopted the policy of stock repurchases as sample objects to assess how financial ratios and the variable of corporate governance influence the probability of the crisis occurrence.
In this study, we apply a panel logit approach to estimate the crisis warming model. The independent variables include four financial ratios－debt ratio, total asset turnover ratio, quick ratio, return on shareholders' equity, and the proxy of corporate governance－stocks holding ratio by directors and supervisors. The sample objects are 17 crisis companies in Taiwan security exchange company that have adopted the policy of stock repurchases over the period January 2000 to December 2007, and 34 normal companies with similar industrial characteristic.
The empirical results show that the debt ratio, total asset turnover, return on shareholders' equity, and the stocks holding ratio by directors and supervisors significantly influence the probability of the crisis occurrence for the companies that have adopted stock repurchases policy. However, the quick ratio has an unexpected effect on the probability of the crisis occurrence due to poor matching companies.
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