| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際經營與貿易研究所 === 100 === This study adds the variable－cash flow at risk (CFaR) into traditional crisis warning model to investigate whether this variable can improve the forecasting performance of crisis warning model. To execute the empirical study, we adopt a panel logit regression model, which considers cross-sectional and time series data simultaneously and can improve the forecasting ability of model. In the constructed panel logit regression model, we select six financial indices frequently used in the literature as the regressors, including return on asset (ROA), liquidity ratio, debt ratio, account receivable turnover rate, stock turnover rate, and return on equity. In addition, we add the CFaR into the model as a new regressor. The sample period spans from 2002 to 2007 and the sample objects cover 12 crisis companies and 36 healthy companies. The data set comes from the TEJ database. Empirical results show that traditional financial ratios provide powerful ability in explaining the probability of a company’s crisis. In addition, adding cash flows at risk into conventional crisis warning model can improve the predicting ability of model.
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