| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 工業與系統工程研究所 === 100 === The field reliability means actual reliability that customers experienced in their operation sites. In many cases, the manufacturers take results from parts count method based on product design data and experienced parts field failure rate data or from in-plant product reliability test as basis for reliability prediction. Experience tells us that there is often an order of magnitude or greater difference between predicted reliability and actual reliability. In this study, we propose a complete process for field reliability prediction and use mobile phone as a case study for analysis. Due to lack of actual field reliability data for analysis, the study uses assumed product time-to-failure data by each failure mode for validation of the proposed prediction model. This study applies failure modes found from in-plant reliability tests and from initial product trial tests by end users to predict product field reliability. The mixed-populations reliability model is applied to estimate failure rate from these detected failure modes. The parts count method is applied to estimate failure rate of parts represented for the hidden failure modes. This combined approach is to establish an overall field reliability prediction and to improve accuracy of the prediction. Furthermore, the field reliability prediction results can be applied for assessment of product maintenance, spares provision and warranty period.
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