| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中正大學 === 會計與資訊科技研究所 === 100 === Taiwan economic development has relied on the electronics industry for a long time. In 2008, the global financial tsunami caused by Taiwan's electronics industry showed negative growth. The study selects the 38 bankrupt companies and 76 normal companies from 2000 to 2010 year in electronics industry in Taiwan, and uses survival analysis-Cox model, logistic regression and neural network to differently construct bankruptcy prediction models. Firstly, select appropriate variables through the statistical test. Next, uses all enter method and forward stepwise regression method to filter out the most significant variables. The results show that financial ratios and corporate governance indicators are indeed helpful for bankruptcy prediction models.
Cox model is the best bankruptcy prediction model, its accuracy of prediction is close to 90%, and it has the least classification error in the three models. In addition, the study also found that bankrupt companies have the following characteristics: Current ratio is low, accounts receivable turnover ratio is low, and earnings per share is low, but the directors' shareholding pledged rates is high. Finally, the follow-up studies can use different statistical methods and data mining technologies, and new variables to construct the bankruptcy prediction model.
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