Combining Scenario Analysis with Diffusion Model and Competitive Model for the Analyzing the Development of Operating System of Smartphone

• Main Authors: Ya-Lin Liu, 劉亞琳
• Other Authors: 曾芳美
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/46932037826942118925

碩士 === 元智大學 === 國際企業學程 === 99 === The sales volume of Smartphone grew rapidly recently and the key factor of growth has changed from hardware to software and service. In order to realize the strength and weakness in the growth of Smartphone, we should emphasize on the development of software and service. There are three major platforms in the market, including Android, iOS and Symbian. Android is a platform with open source which lead to rapid growth. iOS is the closed platform and its innovative performance attract a lot of consumers successfully. Nokia was the leading mobile phone in the past. The market share of its platform “Symbian” falls down quickly. However, the sales volume still increases. In term of the past research about the development of Smartphone, most of them focus on the opinion of consumers. In our study, we see the factor from the firm level to realize how their strategies influence the development of Smartphone’s OS. Combined with scenario analysis, competitive model and diffusion model, we build the scenario and forecast the trend of diffusion. The result shows that there is no significant substitute effect among each OS in the next five years. On the contrary, some platforms have symbiotic relation with each other. Moreover, the key factors of platform’s development are related to all industry chain. In our study, we also find degree of open level influence the cooperation among industry chain. this point influence if the platform was supported or not.