| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 亞洲研究所碩士班 === 99 === With decreasing in population from the effects of aging society and declining birthrate, Japan’s labor favor also become decreasing and that make a big impact to the macroeconomic in Japan. The Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan promulgate the statistics about number of population and labor favor and possible to find out that both of them have positive correlation by researching the data of statistics. Without this factor, decreasing population whether make indirect effects to other expenses factors. If that’s true, what’s influence will be happen on macroeconomic? By this awareness of the issues, the purpose of this paper is to clarify that business productivity and factor of production change with decreasing in population about aging society and declining birthrate in future in Japan. And use the production function of Cobb-Douglas to attempt from A.D. 2010 to 2030 about the possibility of economic growth by production factors changing.
Looking up to the literatures of the research, and found out that change the population size and composition will let both of supply side and demand side in macroeconomic become changing too. In addition to the most obvious the labor force is not only one factors, intern of scale of consumption is declining with population’s decrease. And consumption trend will tendency to elderly people that increasing now in Japan. Average savings ratio will became decreasing in future that base on life cycle hypothesis. These factors will make enterprise of production and economic development adversely affected.
Based on the data of production factors that promulgation from Cabinet Office in Japan, by doing simulation with setting the assume conditions for the change about economic in A.D. 2010 to 2030. That got the results that labor favor will be decreased from 67.93 million people in A.D. 1998 to 61.8 million people in A.D. 2030. And the average saving rate will become 25.4% in A.D. 2030 from 26% in A.D. 2010. All of these factors make a result that GDP growth will be decreased 0.2%～0.4% a year in the term of A.D. 2010 to A.D. 2030.
However, increase TFP growth (example: grow up labor-saving technological progress) that can draw minus effects by capital and labor’s change. By simulation with pilot calculation, the ideal result is make the TFP growth to 0.25% a year to keep the immediate economic of scale. It is expected that without to promote labor force increase, there still have other way about enhancing the human capital, result the way to use of investment most efficiently, can make economic growth will not to be decrease in future. And how to grow up the TFP growth will become one of the important issues for economic in Japan that continued decreasing population.
|
|---|
