A Study for System Dynamics Applied to the Causes of Software Project Risk

• Main Authors: Ming-Huang Lin, 林明煌
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73373718290464525033

碩士 === 世新大學 === 資訊管理學研究所(含碩專班) === 99 === Risk management is a respected part of project development process, what different between software project and general project is software project is highly required knowledge and creative from manpower, within it the uncertainty and volatility are high, especially software project development activities are quite complicated, within limited time and resource restriction, will meet a lot of challenged risks. How to use the appropriate tools to evaluate risk impact on the project, and control project risk by excellent risk response plans, reduce the incidence of software project risk and impact, to expect software project can meet user requirement and reduce the negative effect of project failure, more than required issue by the project manager. Firstly, this study explored by literature, sorting out risk factors and risk factor dimensions of the software project, and identifies software project management process between the various stages of the important risk factors by using the modified Delphi method expert questionnaire, collecting the 31 risk factors from five stages of software project management. Apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) expert questionnaire method to conduct risk factor analysis of the importance of weight, by using System Dynamics to establish relative risk of causal relationship diadram and dynamic scenarios simulation, to provide important risk evaluation reference for project manager. The study result reflects during the software development, software quality is difficult to control, frequent changes from user requirements, project managers lack experience and other factors will affect the software project schedule and quality, may eventually lead to project delays or failure. However, by using of system dynamics approach to depict the relationship between risk factors, as well as causal loop result from project target , and assisted with decision of scenario analysis simulation by system dynamics model, to provide comprehensive outlook and effective risk information of software project for manager, to approach possibility of viewing all risk. System dynamics model could assist project manager to define effective policy, in order to reduce opportunity and influence of software project risk, to comply with expected achievements, eventually promote project quality and success.