| Summary: | 博士 === 國防大學政治作戰學院 === 政治研究所 === 99 === ABSTRACT
The international political questions concerning the rise of China have become an indisputable fact. How could it rise? How could it rise with peace? Is the conflict between the rising power and the existing power inevitable? These concerns not only involve China’s national security issues, but also involves its national security planning and execution.
This paper’s research topic is “Analysis and Evaluation of the Factors that Affect China’s Security Strategy.” By analyzing its internal environmental affecting factors, it was discovered that China’s national defense security is the most important issue among all the national security issues. Further, these national defense is the prerequisite solution to China’s political, economic, military, diplomatic, and scientific security problems and the synonym for China’s national security.
This dissertation selected China’s national defense security as the variable for quantita- tive research, under the consideration of research scope and limitation. The research frame- work takes national security strategy development of the rising as one facet, and takes the national security strategy guidance of the leaderships after the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 as another facet, along with taking the US as the imaginary enemy of China’s biggest national security threat from external environment. Targeting on China’s national security strategy development issues at its present stage, gives a corresponding theory and validation in trying to understand the regularity and change of China’s use of “peace and fight two-hand strategy” along with the development progress of China’s national security strategy development.
According to the analysis of documents, China’s discourse on it’s national security strategy emphasizes that the development has the characteristics of China’s socialism in the theoretical system. But when looking into China’s change of national security strategy think- ing, it still takes national security interests as priority, power balance in mind, interdependent as cognitive, coordination and cooperation as a measure, and military power as the corne-
rstone. Looking for the double protection of its national core interests and security still main-
tains the area of mainstream Western theory of strategic research. Therefore, this dissertation adopted realism as it’s research approach, backed by China’s national defense security and the pursuit of national power, security interests as its core point of view. With reference to the the- ories in international political studies regarding the rise power that affects the international situation including conflict theory, balance of power theory, and international cooperation theory, international security theory this dissertation raised eight hypotheses for the develop- ment of China’s national security strategy as the basis for verification of theories.
This dissertation chose a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods, with qualitative research as the leading method, while adopting historical literature analysis and qualitative content analysis. For quantitative research, the paper adopted time series analysis regression techniques by selecting the quantifiable data in China’s economic, politi- cal, economic,military,diplomatic and scientific areas after 1996, comparing the real sequence data with the US. Thus establishing a predictable mathematical model to analyze and evaluate the affecting factors of national security, reinforcing the reliability and validity of this research. And test the relationship between China’s present stage security strategy implementation and the theories.
According to results of the qualitative research analysis, the critical period of China’s security strategy development was after the end of the Cold War. The Chinese leadership und- er the globalized international dependence, cooperation and consultation showed the “macro” reform and opening up of the domestic economy growing steadily. Year by year the compre- hensive national strength increased, making the rise of China an inevitable issue in the world. China’s defense budget spending, compared to the percentage of total national budget and economic strength is a reflection of the regression model (refer to chapter six). Presented in chapter 7 the US and China in the defense budget, overall economic strength, national tech- nology professionals comparison and prediction. From the validated result of overall practice, it was discovered that China’s leadership on the national strength development strategy has changed from quantitative development to qualitative development; accordance with the rati- onal model result. From the perspective of rational choice concerning the national security strategy to the China’s leadership in its achievement, it can be called a globalized governing “political CEO” leadership.
Key words: Rising Power, National Security Strategy, National Defense Security, Balance of Power, Realism
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