Risk assessment of the credit guarantee fund by considering the government policy :2-stage restricted simulation.

• Main Authors: Chih-hung Wang, 王志弘
• Other Authors: Jih-Jeng Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/82912145146966627103

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 資訊管理學系 === 99 === 　　Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Taiwan approximately occupy 97.91% of total enterprises. The major characteristics of SMEs are small capital and limited resources. In addition, SMEs have the problems of the weak management and the pressure of short-term financing challenges, especially when the economics turns down, such as the financial crisis in 2007. Therefore, the government in Taiwan set up the SME Credit Guarantee Fund (SMEG) to strengthen the will of the financial institutions to loan SMEs. The purposes of the SMEG are to seek the minimum guaranteed risk and achieve the governmental policies simultaneously. Therefore, this paper provided a two-stage limited simulation method to help SMEG to obtain the above objectives. The empirical results in this paper shown the new default rates are 2.0864%, 1.3249% and 0.6095%, respectively, over the period 2008-2010. These default rates indicated that the proposed method reduces the actual default rates 1.0736%, 0.7051% and 0.3505%, respectively.