The discussion of the final size for the general SARS epidemic model

• Main Authors: Chuan-shin Ding, 丁泉鑫
• Other Authors: Ting-Kang Luo
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/35113800548972854385

碩士 === 靜宜大學 === 財務與計算數學系 === 99 === In this paper, we want to discuss a general model for the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic and to conjecture the final size of the susceptible population .We also find the relation between the final susceptible population size and the acting basic reproduction number. The number a (a>0) is used to distinguish two different situation. If the acting basic reproduction number is larger than a, the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, becomes zero; therefore , everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If the acting basic reproduction number is samller than a , the disease dies out , and then final susceptible population size is larger than zero, which means part of the population will never be infected.