The Prediction of Taiwan Occupational Accidents Types of Construction Industry on Grey Theory

• Main Authors: Hsu, Yachuen, 許雅淳
• Other Authors: Wang, kuohua
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98618053823947910412

碩士 === 中國文化大學 === 勞工關係學系 === 99 === The construction industry has serious occupation accidents among all industries in Taiwan. In view of the variation of occupational accidents types in construction industry is uncertain, this study applied GM(1,1) model of grey system theory to construct the number of people and the percentage forecasting model of the major occupational accidents types based on the occupational accidents data of construction industry from 1999 to 2009 from Council of Labor Affairs. The results represent that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of the number of people for the various occupational accidents types are between 0.372% and 3.269%, and the MAPE of the percentage for the various occupational accidents types is 1.047-4.276%. Moreover, checking the validity from the residuals of 2010, the number of people and the percentage for the various occupational accidents types are all within 10% of eligible. Predicting the trend of the occupational accidents of construction industry from GM(1,1) model, cut, scrathed and traffic accidents are significant increase, hit, caught and sucked slightly increase. On the contrary, collapse shows a significant decline in the trend, and fall, tumble, and falling object decrease slightly.