| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 99 === Taiwan is an island and international trade is the key to its economy. Therefore, the global changes have great influence on Taiwan. Besides, Regional economic integration becomes widespread in every region, which reduces Taiwan commodity market all over the world. Consequently, Taiwan and China agree with ECFA in 2010. In ths paper, we mainly discuss how Japan earthquake and ECFA affect Taiwan economy.
This paper uses the data in Taiwan to build Taiwan macrorconomy model. There are 84 equations and 103 variables in our model. The sample period is between first quarter in 1960 and third quarter in 2010. Our prediction on the range of the unemployment rate is between 3 % to 4% from the first quarter in 2011 to the forth quarter in 2015,with the prediction on the gdp will become better at the same interval. Moreover, we also use the scenario analysis concerning other variations on topic such as Japan’s economic growth rate, oil price variation, the changes of import and export after ECFA and China’s economic growth rate.
This paper shows that Japan economic has a positive effect on the Taiwan economic, but the influence has become smaller than before. However, the rising oil price has bad influence on Taiwan import. Besides, improving trade with China and China economy has positive effect to Taiwan economy. Consequently, ECFA will be beneficial to Taiwan.
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